SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:High mortgage rates dampen home sales, decrease demand from first-time buyers

Mortgage rates approaching 8% and SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Centera lack of housing inventory are continuing to keep potential homebuyers − especially first-time buyers − out of the market.

Existing-home sales fell 2% in September to 3.96 million, down 15% from one year ago, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors released Thursday.

Meanwhile, median existing home sales price dropped from $404,100 in August to $394, 300 in September. However, it was up 2.8% higher than one year ago, marking the fourth consecutive year-over increase.

“As has been the case throughout this year, limited inventory and low housing affordability continue to hamper home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The Federal Reserve simply cannot keep raising interest rates in light of softening inflation and weakening job gains.”

Mortgage rates and housing market

This week, mortgage rates averaged 7.63% for a 30-year conventional loan this week, according to newly released data Thursday by Freddie Mac.

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“Mortgage rates continued to approach eight percent this week, further impacting affordability,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “In this environment, it’s important that borrowers shop around with multiple lenders for the best mortgage rate.”

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First-time homebuyers, for whom down payment is often one of the biggest barriers, should also ask their lender about down payment assistance, advised Khater.

It’s not just the homebuyers feeling the impact of rising rates. Incoming data suggests home builders are feeling the pinch, too, according to Khater.

Housing inventory

Total housing inventory registered at the end of September was 1.13 million units, up 2.7% from August but down 8.1% from one year ago (1.23 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.3 months in August and 3.2 months in September 2022.

First-time buyers were responsible for 27% of sales in September, down from 29% in August. Last November, the annual share of first-time buyers was 26, the lowest since 1999, when NAR began tracking the data. Before the pandemic, first-time buyers typically accounted for close to 40% of the transactions, says Yun.

Cash is king and multiple offers are still common

With higher mortgage rates driving out borrowers, all-cash sales accounted for 29% of transactions in September, up from 27% in August and 22% in September 2022. This has hit first-time buyers who have to compete with all cash offers, with no built-up equity.

Close to 26% of the homes were sold above the list price, indicating that multiple offers are still being submitted. Though the competition seems to be slowing down: One year ago, 28% of the homes sold above list price, and in August, 31% of the homes were sold above this price.

Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy is the housing and economy reporter for USA TODAY. Follow her on Twitter @SwapnaVenugopal