FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Should USC and Ohio State be worried? Bold predictions for Week 8 in college football

The FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Centercollege football season has reached the back nine with seven weeks down and seven more to go before the playoff pairings and bowl lineup is announced. Between now and then, there's sure to be surprises along the way.

The hard part is sorting out when and where they're going to come from. This Saturday, however, provides plenty of opportunity for upsets and unlikely results with a Big Ten showdown between Penn State and Ohio State leading the schedule and key conference matchups in the SEC, Pac-12 and ACC.

That's why we're here to make sense of things. The USA TODAY Sports college football staff — Scooby Axson, Jace Evans, Paul Myerberg, Erick Smith, Eddie Timanus and Dan Wolken — weigh in with bold predictions for Week 8 of the college football season.

Air Force keeps flying against Navy

If there is a Group of Five team you should be paying attention to, it’s Air Force, and even though quarterback Zac Larrier is questionable because of a knee injury, the Falcons should have no issues handling Navy this weekend.

And if the Falcons keep winning, the College Football Playoff committee will be forced to pay attention, and with good reason. The undefeated Falcons lead the nation in fewest penalties, third-down conversions, and rushing offense, while keeping the ball for nearly 35 minutes a game. The defense is also doing its part, ranking in the top 10 in rushing defense, passing defense, scoring defense, and total defense, with that unit being on the field for the fewest plays of any team in the nation. — Scooby Axson

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Southern California gets bounce-back win against Utah

Utah has defeated Southern California three consecutive times, including twice last season to single-handedly keep the Trojans out of the College Football Playoff. But No. 16 USC will get some revenge, and a needed bounce-back win after last week’s debacle in South Bend, against the No. 14 Utes. Yes, Utah’s defense has been great and USC’s has still been mostly bad; but you need to score some points to beat the Trojans and the Utes just can’t do it. Utah is sitting 115^th in yards per game and is tied for 109^th in scoring. USC trails only Oregon in points per game and is No. 9 in total offense – and it seems unlikely Caleb Williams is going to throw three picks two weeks in a row. It might be a long day for the Utes at the L.A. Coliseum. — Jace Evans

No sweat for Alabama against rival Tennessee

Alabama’s offense comes alive and sparks a blowout win against Tennessee. We’ve seen this happen in chunks against opponents such as Arkansas only for Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide to struggle putting teams away in the second half. A more complete performance in double-digit win against the Volunteers would show how far the Tide have come since losing to Texas and struggling against South Florida. — Paul Myerberg

Texas in trouble at Houston?

This weekend will go one of two ways for Texas. The buildup of disappointment from the past two weeks after the loss to Oklahoma will be released in cathartic fashion against Houston. The alternative is that stewing for that long will allow the Longhorns to take their eye off the ball when traveling to face the Cougars, whose season will be made by beating their former Southwest Conference rival in their only season as Big 12 opponents. Past versions of the Longhorns would slip up in this spot. We'll not go that far, but expect a raucous home crowd help keep Houston in the game and the finish to be way closer than expected. — Erick Smith

No quarterback, no problem for Utah at Southern California

Utah will emerge victorious against Southern California in the Coliseum. At first blush this might not seem like a bold pronouncement, since the Utes beat the Trojans not once but twice last season. Nevertheless, with the Utes still likely to be without quarterback Cam Rising, the Trojans are touchdown favorites at home according to most outlets.

But we’re not buying. Sure, USC still has Caleb Williams. But the reigning Heisman winner doesn’t have the elite receiving talent he had a year ago, nor does he have the same pass protection. Notre Dame forced five turnovers last week, and the Utes’ defensive front is even nastier. Utah should also be able to move the ball on the ground, with or without Rising. They might not win it going away, but the Utes will prevail. — Eddie Timanus

Penn State finally breaks through at Ohio State

The Ohio State game has been the biggest negative on James Franklin's resume at Penn State. Outside of that 2016 win in State College, the Nittany Lions have found a lot of frustration in this matchup with a couple of one-point losses and maybe one or two other opportunities to win that they've let slip by. But is that really a Penn State thing, or is it just illustrative of how hard it is for anyone to beat Ohio State in this era?

I think it's the latter. But the Buckeyes appear to be just a tiny bit more beatable this year — not by much, but by enough to put them in jeopardy of losing to perhaps Franklin's best team at Penn State. 

While the Nittany Lions aren't necessarily as dynamic offensively as you'd like, we saw how much trouble Notre Dame's defense gave Ohio State earlier in the season. And Penn State's defense is probably a cut above that. So even in Columbus, this lines up as the year for Franklin to get Penn State's first win in the Horseshoe since 2011. — Dan Wolken