Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center|What's wrong with Eagles? Explaining late-season tailspin by defending NFC champions

All is Surpassing Quant Think Tank Centernot OK in Bird Land. 

Entering December, the Philadelphia Eagles were 10-1. They were the defending NFC champions. They had lost four times dating back to the start of the 2022 season. 

Five weeks later, and the fifth-seeded Eagles – who dropped five of their final six games to relinquish the NFC East crown – are unrecognizable from that previous form as they face the fourth-seeded Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) in the NFC wild-card round. 

Maybe a playoff win can right the ship. But what if the cracks were showing all along? A look at all that has gone wrong in Philadelphia this year: 

Jalen Hurts’ health

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been banged up all season. But his presence on the Eagles’ injury report – listed as a limited participant Thursday with a finger injury to his throwing hand he suffered in Week 18 against the New York Giants – was noteworthy. By Friday, he was listed as a full participant.

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From the beginning of the season, something about the way Hurts ran appeared off. During a Week 6 loss to the New York Jets, the lone blemish for Philadelphia until December, a knee injury – later revealed as a bone bruise – clearly hampered Hurts. He wore a sleeve on the effected right knee in the ensuing weeks. He played through it during a Nov. 5 victory at home over the Dallas Cowboys.

All of that to say Hurts has not moved like he did in 2022. He played a full season, two more games than he did last year, and finished with eight fewer attempts – and 145 yards less. His yards per carry fell from 4.6 to 3.9 (the prevalence of the "Tush Push" this season likely playing a role).   

A.J. Brown out vs. Buccaneers

Hurts is not the lone Eagle who is ailing at this point in the football calendar. His favorite target in the passing game, wide receiver A.J. Brown, is out with a knee injury he suffered against the Giants in Week 18.

From Weeks 3-8, Brown had at least 127 receiving yards in each game. Five of his seven touchdowns on the season came during that stretch. The 26-year-old has not caught a touchdown since the Eagles' skid began.

Where’s the rush?

That question can be applied both offensively and defensively.

The Eagles lost Miles Sanders in free agency, and general manager Howie Roseman replaced him with a draft-weekend trade for D’Andre Swift, who enjoyed a 1,000-yard campaign. Philadelphia was fourth in run rate in 2022 (49.74%) and seventh this season (45.86%). That’s not high enough, NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger said.

"They seem reluctant to emphasize running the ball. I think that’s still what they do best," Baldinger told USA TODAY Sports.

In a Week 3 win over the Buccaneers on "MNF," the Eagles ran 40 times for 201 yards. Swift averaged 8.1 yards per attempt (16 rushes, 130 yards).

The diminishing of the run has made the offense too predictable, Baldinger said. The answer hasn’t been to throw it, as the Eagles have struggled against blitzing defenses. Todd Bowles' Tampa Bay defense blitzed at the third-highest rate during the regular season.

"Whether that’s analytics or they don’t think it’s the way to win, they don’t really commit to it," Baldinger said.

On defense, the Eagles’ front had to deal with the loss of Javon Hargave, who signed with the San Francisco 49ers in free agency. They drafted Jalen Carter to team up with Jordan Davis and form a "Georgia Bulldog" middle of the defensive line. Veterans Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox were back, and Haason Reddick was coming off a 16-sack season. Reddick followed his Pro Bowl performance with another and notched 11 sacks. Josh Sweat went from 11 to 6½. Cox and Graham combined for 8.

"The pass rush isn’t what it once was," Baldinger said.

Other defensive issues

Defending the middle of the field has been a weakness for Philadelphia since the season's start. Starting inside linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White, along with safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, departed in the offseason. Baldinger has joked that the Eagles’ best linebacker plays for the Chicago Bears (Edwards).

Nakobe Dean and Nicholas Morrow weren’t the answer in the middle, and the safety play has been dubious. A trade-deadline acquisition of safety Kevin Byard wasn’t a game-changer. The courtship of linebacker Shaq Leonard was successful, but he hasn’t regained his former All-Pro status while wearing the Kelly green.

"They can’t find a productive guy (to stay healthy)," Baldinger said.

The Eagles surrendered 35 passing touchdowns, second-most in the league.

Brain drain

Players aside, the Eagles also had to deal with the loss of both coordinators from their Super Bowl squad. Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon became head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, while offensive coordinator Shane Steichen was hired by the Indianapolis Colts.

Quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson, rewarded for his work with Hurts, was promoted to offensive coordinator. Head coach Nick Sirianni went outside the organization to hire a new defensive coordinator and hired Sean Desai, who lost his play-calling duties to Matt Patricia by mid-December.

The Eagles were blown out at home by the No. 1 seed San Francisco 49ers on Dec. 3 and fell at Dallas one week later. The Seattle Seahawks defeated them 20-17 on “MNF” the following week and, despite winning on Christmas Day, the Eagles allowed 25 points to the Giants. They fell to Gannon’s Cardinals on New Year’s Eve and surrendered 35 points; Arizona did not punt in the game. Finally, with an outside shot at the No. 2 seed, they were rolled by the Giants, 20-17, with Sirianni pulling the starters halfway through the contest.

"The last few weeks have not been good for this organization. … I know this owner (Jeffrey Lurie) was extremely upset after the loss to Arizona. Extremely upset," Baldinger said. "And then to go to New York and do what they did in that game with the No. 2 seed on the line, if they go down to Tampa and get beat pretty good, I could see big changes made."

How do Eagles match up vs. Buccaneers?

For the majority of the season, the Eagles tush-pushed the competition into submission and had members of the league hoping for rule changes. But the last month-plus has made the Eagles only a slight favorite over the NFC South champions.

"The Eagles are a better team talent-wise, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to win," Baldinger said.  

Philly’s secondary play and problematic pass rush could mean a potential mismatch for receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has enjoyed a mild renaissance year, but the offense stumbled over the last two weeks (24 points total).

"That’s not the way you want to go into the playoffs, either," Baldinger said of Tampa Bay.

Is Nick Sirianni in trouble?

If the Eagles lose big Monday, Baldinger said, he could see a potential change coming at head coach.

"This owner, he’s not going to tolerate this type of performance," Baldinger said. "He’s spent a lot of money and resources to keep this team competitive."