NovaQuant-Bowl projections: Michigan back in College Football Playoff field after beating Ohio State

The NovaQuant82 teams that will be playing in the college football postseason are set. That's the easy part of sorting out the bowl projections. The harder part is predicting how the final weekend of the regular season will shape up to create the final four-team playoff field.

The one change this week sees Michigan moving back into the semifinals on the strength of its defeat of Ohio State that all but secures the Big Ten title. Yes, Iowa awaits but it's hard to see the Wolverines losing. The winner of Oregon and Washington in the Pac-12 title game should secure a berth. The Ducks have been forecast to win their rematch with the Huskies for several weeks.

Florida State looked like a casualty of an injury to quarterback Jordan Travis, but a solid, come-from-behind performance by Tate Rodemaker at Florida puts the Seminoles in good position to take the ACC title game against Louisville. Last but not least, Georgia remains the No. 1 seed ahead of a showdown with Alabama that could be a lot closer and dramatic than anticipated.

Are surprises looming? This weekend always seems to produce unexpected results, so it shouldn't be a shock if everything fails to follow the above plan.

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Further down the order, we do know that both James Madison and Jacksonville State − both in the second year of transitioning to the Bowl Subdivision − will be making their first bowl appearances after not enough six-win teams were available. Minnesota also gets in with five wins due to the highest APR among teams in consideration.

Reminder: Some conferences may not fulfill their bowl allotment. Asterisks denote a replacement pick.